The biggest secret in modern cycling has finally been exposed: a former pro rider claims that Mathieu van der Poel has actually cracked the mysterious formula that makes Tadej Pogačar so dominant. If you’re trying to pick a “Rider of the Year” for 2025, your mind will instantly jump to the Slovenian superstar of UAE Emirates‑XRG, a man who has seemed to own every WorldTour race he touches. Yet, despite his near‑mythical status, Pogačar has suffered defeats – most notably at the hands of the Dutch all‑rounder Mathieu van der Poel. How did the Dutchman manage to outwit the so‑called “unbeatable”?
Former WorldTour rider Tom Danielson (now a respected commentator on X) believes he knows the answer. In a recent post, Danielson broke down the tactical gymnastics that allow Pogačar to launch long, solo attacks and stay ahead of a chasing pack that includes the likes of Wout van Aert, Mads Pedersen and even van der Poel himself. “He picks the exact moment when the race reaches its crunch point – the steepest, most punishing segment – and attacks there,” Danielson wrote. “From that instant the field shatters, riders are either blown apart or pushed right to their limits. It’s a check‑mate move; the survivors are scattered and exhausted, making it almost impossible to close the gap.”
Why numbers don’t matter for Pogačar
According to Danielson, the magic happens in the first decisive phase of the race. While the peloton scrambles to reorganise, Pogačar bolts ahead, and the terrain that follows treats the chasers exactly the same as the leader. “In that situation, the size of the group—whether you’re in a two‑man chase or a twenty‑man group—doesn’t change the outcome,” the American explained. The leader’s advantage is purely tactical, not numerical.
Race selection is a calculated gamble
Danielson also points out that Pogačar doesn’t even start races where he can’t apply this high‑stakes strategy. “He pretty much avoids events that don’t let him create that kind of winning scenario,” he said, naming the Quebec‑style courses as the lone exceptions. Even the classic Milan‑San Remo is a borderline case – a race where Pogačar is improving his approach but still hasn’t found the perfect formula.
Van der Poel’s masterstroke
When you look at the two occasions where Pogačar was beaten – Paris‑Roubaix and Milan‑San Remo – you see a pattern: both were dominated by van der Poel. Danielson concludes, “Mathieu van der Poel has cracked the Pogačar code.” The Dutchman simply chooses races that align perfectly with his own strengths and then trains specifically for the type of relentless, ultra‑long VO₂‑max efforts that Pogačar typically relies on. He can repeat those grueling power outputs over and over, and he’s prepared to stay out there until the very end.
What does this mean for 2026?
The former rider predicts that we’re about to see a new chapter in the rivalry. Pogačar, aware that his usual tactics have been studied and countered, will head into the spring classics – San Remo, the Tour of Flanders and the brutal cobbles of Roubaix – with fresh moves, new acceleration patterns and perhaps even a different race‑selection philosophy. In other words, expect him to try something completely different next season, and watch how van der Poel reacts.
But here’s the controversial part: is Pogačar truly unbeatable, or have we simply been dazzled by his ability to pick the right moments? If van der Poel can systematically dismantle his playbook, could other riders start doing the same? What do you think? Do you agree that van der Poel has solved the “Pogačar puzzle,” or do you believe the Slovenian still holds the ultimate edge? Drop your thoughts in the comments – I’m eager to hear the debate!
